Category: Columns

So how many Americans have been infected with coronavirus?

By Kevin Roche Most experts assume that some multiple of the number of people who have tested positive for coronavirus disease have actually been infected.  Testing has been episodic at best and generally limited to people with symptoms or who…

What comes next in the ongoing coronavirus saga?

By Kevin Roche Over the last few days, pressure has been mounting, from the public and certain leaders, to change the strategy on economic shutdowns.  It appears that our leaders, unfortunately, as usual, completely under-estimated the depth of the job…

How to think about coronavirus modeling

By Kevin Roche The diagram below is designed to help think through how coronavirus epidemic models could be built.  In this diagram I am assuming that you pull 1000 people randomly from the US population and that you assume they…

Yet more Coronavirus research

By Kevin Roche Research results are flowing in on coronavirus and a lot of it is critical information on transmissibility.  How the virus is transmitted, its hardiness in air or on surfaces, what “dose” is enough to cause infection; all…

An open letter to Bill Gates

By Kevin Roche Dear Mr. Gates: I have the greatest admiration for the work you performed in building Microsoft into one the world’s premier companies. And I have even more admiration for the tremendous work you have done to improve…

Problems with creating and using models

By Kevin Roche The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington has put together a variety of coronavirus data and projections, which have come to be widely relied upon by policymakers.   (IMHE Page)   I am not…

The tyranny of the experts continued

By Kevin Roche Last week I wrote a post regarding the dangers of allowing experts with narrow perspectives to dictate public policy.  Others, including futurist George Gilder, have written on the same theme.   (Gilder Post)    There are many reasons…