By Gene Galin
Charlotte, NC — North Carolina’s four Atlantic Coast Conference football programs will enter the 2026 season separated by geography, institutional identity and recent results, but connected by one defining challenge: surviving a sport in which quarterbacks, star players and entire depth charts can change almost overnight.
NC State arrives with the clearest reason for optimism. Coach Dave Doeren and quarterback CJ Bailey are openly discussing an ACC championship and a possible College Football Playoff appearance. North Carolina enters the second year of the Bill Belichick experiment needing tangible evidence that the celebrated NFL coach’s approach can succeed at the college level. Defending conference champion Duke must replace the quarterback and leading receiver who transferred to rival Miami. Wake Forest, meanwhile, is attempting to build on a nine-win debut season under Jake Dickert despite losing several important players to wealthier programs.
Those contrasting situations formed the basis of my conversation with longtime ACC journalist David Glenn during the ACC Football Kickoff in Charlotte. Glenn, who has covered the conference since the late 1980s and founded the ACC Sports Journal in 1994, assessed the four programs’ rosters, schedules, coaches and realistic expectations.
His central conclusion was clear.
“NC State, of our four in-state teams, has the best chance of having a special season in 2026,” Glenn said.
The Wolfpack’s opportunity, however, does not mean North Carolina, Duke or Wake Forest is destined to struggle. Recent ACC history has repeatedly demonstrated the danger of confident preseason forecasts. Clemson entered 2025 with championship expectations and finished 7-6. Duke and Virginia, widely overlooked before the season, ultimately met in the ACC Championship Game.
The league’s unpredictability is part of its appeal. It also means every North Carolina program has a plausible path to success — provided it solves its most important question before that question becomes a season-defining weakness.
NC State’s Opportunity to Chase Something Bigger
For years, NC State football has occupied an unusual position in the state’s sports hierarchy. The Wolfpack have consistently produced respectable teams, NFL players and memorable victories, yet they have rarely transformed those individual achievements into a championship season.
Doeren has won more games than any football coach in NC State history. His teams have recorded at least eight victories in seven of the past nine seasons and produced four nine-win campaigns. What remains missing is an ACC championship, a berth in the conference title game or the type of double-digit-win season that permanently changes a program’s national reputation.
NC State has reached 10 victories only once in more than a century of football. The 2002 team, led by quarterback Philip Rivers, finished 11-3 and defeated Notre Dame in the Gator Bowl.
The 2026 Wolfpack believe they have a realistic opportunity to challenge that history.
Doeren did not attempt to lower expectations during ACC Kickoff. Instead, he spoke directly about the championship that has eluded his program.
“I am tired of being in second place,” Doeren said, according to Glenn’s account of the coach’s remarks.
Bailey was similarly direct, stating that NC State’s goals include winning the ACC championship and qualifying for the College Football Playoff. Such declarations are uncommon in a sport in which coaches and players often emphasize one game at a time and avoid creating material that can be interpreted as a guarantee.
Glenn viewed their comments as evidence of legitimate confidence rather than careless preseason bravado.
“A lot of times coaches will think that, but they’ll be afraid to say it out loud,” Glenn said. “This time, CJ Bailey and Dave Doeren were bold and confident and unafraid.”
Bailey is the primary reason that confidence carries weight. The 6-foot-6, 213-pound junior returns for his third season in the program after establishing himself as one of the conference’s most promising quarterbacks. His decision to remain at NC State, rather than pursue transfer opportunities elsewhere, provided the Wolfpack with stability at the sport’s most consequential position.
That stability separates NC State from the state’s other three ACC programs. North Carolina is evaluating veteran transfers and younger quarterbacks. Duke must replace an All-ACC performer who left late in the transfer cycle. Wake Forest has added former UNC quarterback Gio Lopez but still must establish him as the unquestioned starter.
NC State already knows who will direct its offense.
The Wolfpack also possess a schedule that appears more manageable than many they faced during the ACC’s former divisional era. In those years, NC State regularly encountered national contenders Clemson, Florida State and Louisville as annual or frequent opponents.
The 2026 schedule contains challenging games but no obvious stretch of multiple national powers. NC State opens Aug. 29 at Virginia after a proposed game in Brazil was relocated to Charlottesville. The Wolfpack later travel to Vanderbilt and host Appalachian State before beginning an ACC stretch that includes home games against Louisville, Wake Forest, California, Duke and Syracuse.
Louisville’s Oct. 3 visit to Raleigh may be NC State’s most difficult game, Glenn said, but even that matchup will be played at Carter-Finley Stadium.
“When you have your junior quarterback back for his third year as the starter and you have maybe the most manageable schedule in recent NC State football history, you have to stay healthy, win your close games and take advantage of it,” Glenn said.
The optimism is not without important qualifications.
Running back Hollywood Smothers transferred to Texas after rushing for 939 yards in 2025. Wide receiver Noah Rogers, who caught 33 passes for 441 yards and three touchdowns, transferred to Alabama. Those losses removed two significant offensive players who could have helped Bailey pursue the program’s highest goals.
Glenn described those departures as examples of the difficult financial decisions facing programs outside college football’s wealthiest tier. Schools may raise enough revenue-sharing and name, image and likeness resources to retain one priority player, but keeping every valued contributor is increasingly difficult.
NC State invested heavily in continuity at quarterback. The challenge now is ensuring the remaining roster can protect Bailey, create explosive plays and improve a defense that experienced difficult stretches in 2025.
The Wolfpack must also withstand the psychological pressure created by elevated expectations. A program accustomed to being the underdog will begin the season knowing supporters see a legitimate route to 10 victories.
“This year, I don’t think anybody should roll their eyes at the idea that State could win 10 games,” Glenn said. “A lot has to go right. They have to stay healthy, win the turnover battle and support CJ Bailey, but I think it’s possible.”
North Carolina Needs Proof of Progress
If NC State represents the state’s greatest source of optimism, North Carolina may be its greatest mystery.
Belichick arrived in Chapel Hill carrying one of the most accomplished résumés in professional football history. His first college season, however, ended with a 4-8 record, a 2-6 mark in ACC play and lingering questions about whether his NFL-centered organizational model could translate to recruiting, player retention and week-to-week college competition.
The Tar Heels used 67 newcomers during Belichick’s first season. They lost three games by one score, showed occasional defensive progress and produced a four-game stretch in which opponents failed to score more than 21 points. Yet the offense frequently struggled to sustain drives, protect the quarterback or generate enough explosive plays to control games.
“I don’t have a great vibe about it,” Glenn said when asked for his overall assessment of the 2026 Tar Heels. “Do they have a chance to be better than 4-8? Yes. Do they have a realistic chance to be in the top six in the ACC? Probably not.”
That distinction is important. Improvement does not necessarily mean championship contention.
For North Carolina, progress may be measured by competitiveness, offensive organization, player development and bowl eligibility. A 6-6 record would not satisfy every supporter, especially after the attention surrounding Belichick’s hiring, but it would establish the upward trajectory the program failed to produce during his first season.
“Carolina fans should demand a better-coached, more competitive football team,” Glenn said. “Maybe one that can scratch and claw to 6-6 or, in the best-case scenario, better than that and make a bowl game.”
The Tar Heels have several recognizable building blocks.
Sophomore running back Demon June, listed at 5-foot-11 and 215 pounds, gives the offense a physical runner with long-term potential. Junior receiver Jordan Shipp provides experience and playmaking ability. Defensive end Melkart Abou-Jaoude is expected to be one of the leaders of a defense that began forming an identity late last season.
The more difficult question is how much proven talent exists beyond that group.
North Carolina again added a large collection of transfers, freshmen and short-term veterans. Blending those players into a unified roster will be one of Belichick’s most important assignments. Returning players such as June and Shipp could provide continuity, but many of the program’s expected contributors are still learning the system, the university and one another.
The quarterback competition will receive the most attention.
Graduate transfer Billy Edwards Jr. brings experience from Maryland and Wisconsin, but injuries have interrupted parts of his career. He is competing in a quarterback room that also includes Miles O’Neill, Travis Burgess and other developing options. The offense will be coordinated by veteran coach Bobby Petrino, adding another significant voice and another new system to a program already undergoing extensive change.
“Billy Edwards has to be really good at quarterback,” Glenn said. “He’s experienced, but he’s also had a lot of injuries. Is he the answer? It would help the Tar Heels a lot if he is.”
The offensive line may be equally consequential. North Carolina struggled in that area during 2025 and is expected to introduce multiple new starters. Even strong quarterback play will have limited value if the Tar Heels cannot establish the running game or provide enough time for Petrino’s passing concepts to develop.
The schedule offers both opportunity and danger.
North Carolina opens against TCU in Dublin, Ireland, on Aug. 29. The international setting will provide national television exposure and a memorable experience for supporters, but it will also force the Tar Heels to confront an opponent that defeated them 48-14 in Chapel Hill last season.
“They have to look like they belong on the same field with TCU this time,” Glenn said.
After an open date and a home game against East Tennessee State, North Carolina travels to Clemson and later hosts Notre Dame. Those games will probably reveal the distance between the Tar Heels and nationally established programs. More attainable conference games follow against Pittsburgh, Duke and Syracuse, creating a midseason stretch that could determine whether bowl eligibility remains realistic. Miami, Louisville, Virginia and NC State await later in the year.
Glenn said the Tar Heels must be prepared to win by October.
“They have to win at least two of those three games against Pitt, Duke and Syracuse, if not all three,” he said.
The broader question involves Belichick’s timetable. He entered college football late in his career, making a long rebuilding process unlikely. Glenn believes the coach must demonstrate significant movement during his second season.
“The runway can’t be longer than three years,” Glenn said. “This is year two for him. He needs to show improvement.”
That does not require 10 victories or an ACC Championship Game appearance. It does require evidence that North Carolina is more organized, more physical and more competitive than it was during Belichick’s first season.
Duke Faces the Cost of College Football’s New Mobility
No North Carolina program experienced a more successful 2025 season than Duke.
The Blue Devils defeated Virginia 27-20 in overtime to win their first outright ACC football championship since 1962. They then defeated Arizona State 42-39 in the Sun Bowl, finishing 9-5 and completing one of the most significant seasons in program history.
Coach Manny Diaz appeared to have established Duke as one of the conference’s most stable programs.
Then the transfer portal changed the outlook.
Quarterback Darian Mensah, who threw for 3,973 yards, 34 touchdowns and only six interceptions in 2025, entered the portal after previously announcing his intention to return. Duke sued, citing a two-season name, image and likeness agreement. The legal dispute was eventually resolved, allowing Mensah to transfer to Miami.
Receiver Cooper Barkate followed him. Barkate caught 72 passes for 1,106 yards and seven touchdowns last season, making him one of the ACC’s most productive receivers.
Duke did not merely lose two starters. It lost the central partnership around which its 2026 offense could have been constructed — and both players joined a conference rival expected to contend for the national championship.
“That’s not a slight adjustment,” Glenn said. “That’s not a shade-of-gray thing. That’s painful and hard to overcome.”
Other departures added to the challenge. Safety Terry Moore transferred to Ohio State, while receiver and return specialist Que’Sean Brown joined Virginia Tech. Each player would have been a significant part of Diaz’s attempt to defend the conference title.
The quarterback situation is now the defining issue.
Graduate transfer Walker Eget arrives from San Jose State after appearing in 27 games and making 18 starts. He has thrown for 5,563 career yards with 30 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. Duke also added Ari Patu, a graduate transfer with experience at Stanford and North Alabama. Redshirt freshman Dan Mahan and freshman Terry Walker III provide younger options.
That room contains experience and potential, but none of the candidates enters the season with Mensah’s established ACC production.
“You could go from having one of the best quarterback depth charts in the ACC to one of the worst,” Glenn said. “Unless this transfer or one of those freshmen shows up in a big way.”
The schedule includes early tests that may expose any offensive uncertainty. Duke opens against Tulane, visits Illinois and hosts Stanford and William & Mary before entering the central portion of its ACC schedule. Conference road games include Georgia Tech, Virginia, NC State, Miami and Wake Forest. Clemson, North Carolina and Boston College visit Durham.
The Nov. 14 trip to Miami will carry particular emotional and competitive weight. Diaz coached the Hurricanes before taking over at Duke, and Mensah and Barkate will be playing against their former teammates.
Miami is expected to be favored heavily, but the storylines will extend well beyond the scoreboard.
Glenn considers a second consecutive trip to the ACC Championship Game unlikely because of Duke’s personnel losses and the depth of the league. Miami, SMU, Louisville and Clemson all possess rosters capable of contending. Other programs, including NC State, believe they are prepared to join that group.
For Duke, therefore, the most reasonable initial goal may be another bowl appearance.
“I know that sounds strange coming off an ACC championship,” Glenn said. “But even to make a bowl, you need a productive quarterback. We’re not sure right now whether they have a productive quarterback on the Duke campus.”
Wake Forest Places Its Trust in Jake Dickert
Wake Forest entered 2025 facing uncertainty after the departure of longtime coach Dave Clawson. Dickert inherited a roster with solid players but few nationally recognized stars.
He responded by leading the Demon Deacons to a 9-4 record, including victories over SMU, Virginia and North Carolina. Wake Forest concluded the season with a 43-29 victory over Mississippi State in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. The nine victories tied the highest total among Football Bowl Subdivision programs in the Carolinas.
Glenn considered Wake Forest’s performance one of the state’s most impressive coaching achievements.
“Jake Dickert deserves a lot of credit for squeezing every last drop out of last year’s Demon Deacons,” he said. “They had below-average quarterback play and still won a lot of games.”
The 2026 team will again depend on Dickert’s ability to replace valuable personnel and maximize a roster without the financial resources available to the nation’s richest programs.
Lopez, who started 11 games for North Carolina in 2025, transferred to Wake Forest and is a leading candidate to become the starting quarterback. He completed 65.1% of his passes for 1,747 yards and 10 touchdowns last season while adding 133 rushing yards and three scores.
His familiarity with the ACC may shorten the adjustment period, but he must still learn a new offense, establish chemistry with new receivers and prove he can deliver consistent production.
Wake Forest also must replace important players who transferred to larger programs. Receiver and return specialist Chris Barnes joined Oklahoma State. Receiver Sterling Berkhalter transferred to Texas, as did starting left tackle Melvin Siani. Receiver Micah Mays moved to Florida.
Those losses illustrate the recurring challenge facing Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons must identify and develop overlooked players, win with them and then attempt to retain them when programs with greater financial resources offer expanded opportunities.
The schedule provides little margin for an extended rebuilding period. Wake Forest travels to Louisville, NC State, California, SMU and Georgia Tech. The Demon Deacons host Stanford, Virginia, Merrimack and Duke during the latter portion of the season.
Glenn identified road games against Louisville and SMU, along with a home matchup against Miami, as particularly difficult.
Matching last season’s nine victories would represent another major accomplishment. Reaching a bowl game would still demonstrate that Dickert has created sustainable momentum.
“He’s such a good coach that I don’t think they’re just going to flat-out collapse,” Glenn said. “Matching their win total would be a great success story. Getting to a bowl game would still be a good success story.”
The Transfer Portal Connects All Four Stories
The most important shared theme among North Carolina’s four ACC programs is not a particular coach, quarterback or rivalry. It is the expanding influence of player movement.
Duke lost a star quarterback and receiver to Miami. NC State lost major offensive contributors to Texas and Alabama. Wake Forest watched developed players leave for Texas, Florida and Oklahoma State. North Carolina is again attempting to blend a large collection of newcomers with a smaller number of established returners.
The portal can solve immediate problems, as Wake Forest hopes Lopez will do at quarterback and Duke hopes Eget can do after Mensah’s departure. It can also erase years of roster planning in a matter of weeks.
Glenn said the richest programs are best positioned to retain nearly every player they consider essential. Most schools, including the four ACC programs in North Carolina, must make difficult decisions about where to commit limited revenue-sharing and NIL resources.
“You can’t pay everybody,” Glenn said. “At some point, you run out of money.”
The result is a new form of competitive instability. Coaches are no longer simply recruiting high school players and developing them for four or five years. They must recruit their existing roster, evaluate hundreds of transfers, manage financial expectations and prepare for the possibility that a projected starter may leave after the traditional recruiting cycle has ended.
The Mensah dispute offered one of the clearest examples. Duke believed it had secured its quarterback through an agreement covering multiple seasons. Mensah entered the portal anyway, leading to a lawsuit and settlement before his move to Miami was completed. The case raised broader questions about contracts, enforcement and the limits of institutional control in the new college sports economy.
The four North Carolina programs are responding differently.
NC State concentrated resources on retaining Bailey. Duke turned to veteran transfers and young prospects after losing Mensah. Wake Forest acquired a quarterback from another in-state program. North Carolina continued its extensive roster reconstruction.
Their results may offer evidence about which approach is most sustainable.
Quarterback Play Could Establish the Statewide Order
When Glenn was asked to rank the four programs, he placed NC State first but declined to create a firm order for the other three.
The reason was quarterback uncertainty.
Bailey gives NC State a proven returning starter and a visible team leader. Duke must determine whether Eget, Patu or a younger player can replace one of the ACC’s most productive quarterbacks. Wake Forest is evaluating whether Lopez can become more effective in a different system. North Carolina is hoping Edwards or another candidate can stabilize an offense that struggled in 2025.
Teams can compensate for average quarterback play with defense, special teams and a strong running game. Wake Forest demonstrated that possibility last season. Over a full schedule, however, quarterback efficiency usually separates conference contenders from teams fighting for bowl eligibility.
Glenn cited Syracuse as a recent example. After winning 10 games with an experienced quarterback, the Orange suffered a major decline after losing their starter to injury.
“That’s how one injury can impact a single program from one year to the next,” Glenn said. “Injuries are an unpredictable variable, and that makes preseason predictions unpredictable as well.”
For NC State, keeping Bailey healthy may be the single most important factor in a possible championship run.
For the other three programs, the goal is more fundamental: identify the right quarterback early enough for the offense to build consistency before the most demanding portion of the schedule.
Success Will Look Different at Each School
The four programs should not be judged by one uniform standard.
At NC State, a seven- or eight-win season may feel disappointing because of Bailey’s return, the favorable schedule and the public championship goals established by the coach and quarterback. A trip to the ACC Championship Game or the second 10-win season in program history would validate Doeren’s long effort to build something beyond annual bowl eligibility.
At North Carolina, six victories and a bowl appearance would represent meaningful progress, particularly if the Tar Heels become more disciplined and competitive against their strongest opponents. The season is less about immediately winning the ACC than demonstrating that Belichick’s college model has a credible future.
At Duke, bowl eligibility would show that Diaz can withstand the loss of elite players and rebuild quickly. Repeating as champion would be extraordinary, but maintaining a winning culture after the departure of Mensah and Barkate may be the more realistic test.
At Wake Forest, another postseason appearance would confirm that Dickert’s debut was not a one-season surge. Nine victories would represent another remarkable coaching performance, given the roster turnover and demanding road schedule.
The ACC itself offers room for surprises. The conference enters its 74th football season with 17 programs, and at least 11 ACC teams have reached the postseason in each of the past three years. That depth makes a championship run difficult, but it also means the league rarely unfolds exactly as predicted in July.
Four Questions That Will Shape the Season
North Carolina’s four ACC football teams enter 2026 carrying four distinct questions.
- Can NC State transform opportunity into history?
- Can North Carolina show that Belichick’s methods are beginning to work?
- Can Duke replace the quarterback-receiver combination that powered a championship?
- Can Wake Forest continue outperforming its resources under Dickert?
The answers will begin emerging immediately.
NC State’s early road trips will test Bailey’s leadership. North Carolina’s opener in Ireland will provide a direct comparison with the TCU team that overwhelmed the Tar Heels a year earlier. Duke’s games against Tulane and Illinois will reveal whether its new quarterback room is ready. Wake Forest’s first month will indicate whether Lopez and the reconstructed offense can support another winning season.
Glenn emphasized that preseason analysis is valuable but inherently limited. A year ago, he did not predict Duke would win the ACC championship. Few analysts did. He was more skeptical of North Carolina’s bowl prospects, and the Tar Heels ultimately finished 4-8.
“Sometimes we’re right, and sometimes we’re wrong,” Glenn said. “That’s why they play the games. The unpredictability adds to the enjoyment factor for fans on any given Saturday.”
For supporters seeking a simple preseason hierarchy, NC State begins at the top of the state’s ACC group. The Wolfpack have the established quarterback, the manageable schedule and the clearest public ambition.
The other three programs enter a less certain tier, each possessing enough coaching ability and individual talent to reach the postseason but enough unanswered questions to slide in the opposite direction.
The next step for fans is to watch the quarterback competitions, follow roster developments and mark the early schedule checkpoints that could define each season. North Carolina’s trip to Ireland, Duke’s nonconference tests, Wake Forest’s demanding road schedule and NC State’s Oct. 3 home game against Louisville will offer some of the clearest early evidence.
By the time conference play reaches its midpoint, the state may have a championship contender, several bowl candidates or another entirely unexpected story.
In the modern ACC, all three outcomes remain possible.